At a Zawaya–Pal-Think seminar, Dr. Marwan Muasher: the two-state solution is finished, and betting on America is a losing bet

• The American administration's concern in the Middle East is “Israel and concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran only
• The Biden administration is unconcerned with the Middle East and has its own priorities that surpass the Palestinian cause
• The American intervention in the war on Gaza was momentary; its aim was preserving calm only
• Betting on America to solve the Arab region's problems is a losing bet
• The post-Oslo generation does not believe in the two-state solution, which does not provide them their requirements

The political thinker Dr Marwan Muasher, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment and former Jordanian foreign minister and deputy prime minister, stressed that the option of the two-state solution ended long ago, and talk of the two-state solution has become nothing but talk by which the international community intends only a discharge of obligation — while “Israel” uses this verbal talk of the two-state solution without it being coupled with any true effort by the international community to achieve this solution on the ground.

Muasher said, during an intellectual seminar organised by the Zawaya Foundation for Thought and Media and Pal-Think for Strategic Studies“, in which an elite of Palestinian writers and researchers took part via the Zoom technique: “'Israel' has used the verbal clinging to the two-state solution in order to create facts on the ground every day — settlements and other things — and in effect it aims to finish off the two-state solution; in addition, 'Israel' says frankly that it does not want the two-state solution”, and does not want to withdraw from the occupied Arab territories.

Muasher added that there is no political will at the “Israeli” and international level for us to set a realistic, implementable plan through which the two-state solution would be achieved — in addition to the demographic facts on the ground, as there are 700 thousand settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and it is impossible to remove them; therefore the two-state solution is no longer possible.

Alternatives to the two-state solution

Muasher continued in his talk during the seminar that the alternative to the two-state solution is other solutions, and these solutions contain a great measure of problematics — pointing out that a part of the Palestinian people, namely the new generation (the post-Oslo generation), is proceeding on the path of the one-state solution, or at least on the path of realising Palestinian rights regardless of what these political and civil rights lead to. Alongside that, there is a part of the Palestinian people itself that says: “We struggled for decades in order to achieve the establishment of Palestinian institutions and a Palestinian national identity, and we cannot ignore all these gains and speak of another solution — considering that the other solution, from the point of view of many Palestinians and perhaps the international community, means a solution based on the melting of the Palestinians into Israeli society by way of a single racist state as it currently is, or by way of a state that does not achieve the Palestinian dream of establishing the Palestinian state.

Muasher made clear that in his talk of the one-state solution he does not intend the melting of Palestinian society into Israeli society; rather, the one-state solution is one in which there is a Palestinian majority in historical Palestine — where the number of Palestinians in the occupied interior, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip is, according to the latest Israeli survey, some 7.4 million Palestinians, against 6.8 million Jewish Israelis.

He noted that “Israel” used to say in the past that the Palestinians cannot come together — that is (the Palestinian of the occupied interior, the Palestinian of Jerusalem, the Palestinian of the West Bank, and the Palestinian of the Gaza Strip) — and that each component of the Palestinian people's components has its particularity; but this theory, after the last war in May 2021 and the events of Sheikh Jarrah and Silwan, proved that the separation between the components of the Palestinian people is not as “Israel” says — rather there has come to be a single Palestinian bloc demanding its political rights.

He affirmed that the Palestinians in the occupied interior feel today that they are second-class citizens in law as well as in treatment, after “Israel” passed the 2018 law that embodies racism and the treatment of Palestinians as second class — as the Israeli judiciary has become two judiciaries, one for the Palestinians inside Israel and another for the Israelis, based on a legal racist system.

Transformations in the world toward the Palestinians

Muasher noted that the world today has begun to shift from focusing on the form of the Palestinian state to focusing on Palestinian rights (political and civil rights). He considered that the Palestinians have not yet reached a critical mass, but they are on the way to reaching it; and the world has not been able to countenance the apartheid Israel is carrying out very plainly, whether in historical Palestine, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip — expressing his belief that the transformation in the Palestinian cause will take a long time extending for decades.

He pointed out that the external transformation, which has come to focus on Palestinian rights today more than before — after ignoring them in the belief that the two-state option would address these rights — has reached a conviction that “Israel” has no intention of withdrawing from the occupied territories; accordingly the world no longer accepts the Israeli practices.

Muasher continued that there is a transformation inside American society itself, even within the circles of the Democratic Party — and although it is not influential, it is not to be underestimated: there are some 100 members of the American Congress counted with the Democratic Party who reject the Israeli practices against the Palestinians.

The new Palestinian generation is unconcerned with the two-state solution

Muasher considered that the new Palestinian generation (post-Oslo) is no longer concerned with a two-state solution because it does not achieve for them the minimum of demands; and that what “Israel” presents today is a solution that does not include Jerusalem, the removal of the settlements, the right of return, the Jordan Valley, and Palestinian sovereignty over the whole of the Palestinian territories — and this generation has begun to shift toward a solution that guarantees at least the Palestinian rights.

The American administration abandons the Middle East region

The Jordanian political thinker Muasher affirmed that there is a radical transformation in the American administration's view of the Middle East region and not the Palestinian cause alone — pointing out that the first stirrings of this matter began since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, that is, from the beginning of the era of the Democrat Barack Obama, in light of a feeling among the American people in its various orientations and intellectual affiliations that the American military adventures abroad are of no avail, did not achieve democracy or American values outside the American borders, and caused much killing of Americans and financial burdens — and Obama was elected on the basis of his withdrawal from the external interventions, foremost Afghanistan and Iraq.

Muasher qualified that the era of the former American president Donald Trump's administration was an exception — not because Trump was concerned with the Palestinian cause, but because he was concerned with killing the Palestinian cause, not to please the American Jews but the evangelical groups — making clear that the American Jews want the two-state solution and therefore rejected the deal of the century, because they grasp that the one-state solution is not in their interest.

He affirmed that the current American administration wants to withdraw from the whole Middle East region, and not only the Palestinian subject — making clear that the sole concern of the American administration is concluding a nuclear agreement with Iran, and Israel, only; whatever is below that is particulars that no longer receive the measure of attention as before — noting that a great number of officials and popular circles do not grasp this truth.

A losing bet

Muasher noted that there are those who believe America is interested in the region for the sake of “Israel” and oil, and that events must impose on America to have a role in the region — affirming that whoever believes that is very mistaken: not because the American administration wants that, but because it has many priorities that surpass the Palestinian cause after the coronavirus pandemic and Trump's term — pointing out that its priorities lie in restoring health to the American economy, restoring cohesion to American society, restoring the relationship with the European Union and the relationship with China and Russia, and climate change — all of them far more important than the Arab region; especially as the subject of oil no longer enjoys the degree of attention as before: America has today become an energy-exporting state and not an importer as before, and the importance of oil in the region has receded to a great extent during the last ten years, specifically since 2014.

Muasher gave as evidence of his view that the American administration, in the last war on Gaza, did not exert an effort to push the peace process — only a momentary effort whose aim was preserving calm.

The former Jordanian deputy prime minister and foreign minister Marwan Muasher stressed that all the facts mean there is a condition imposing on us all a new approach to solving the thorny subjects in the Arab region, and not betting on the United States of America to solve the internal problems, because it is a losing bet.