COVID-19 and September 11: how the virus is redrawing alliances and international priorities

By: Omar Shaban

Certain great events — the First and Second World Wars, the Sykes–Picot agreement, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and many events among wars and peace agreements between states and alliances — had a fundamental effect in shaping international relations and the ladder of priorities.

The head of British Airways declared, commenting on what the world is now living through with the coronavirus, that the world is living a moment like that after 11 September 2001 — when, after those events, the world was compelled to apply a new security system in travel, movement, inspection, and money transfers, to develop technologies of eye-scanning and archiving, and to strengthen cooperation between governments to confront terrorism. The space of individual freedom shrank in favour of security, and states and security agencies were given great powers to monitor individuals and funds. Among the lessons and repercussions that can be drawn provisionally — for the crisis has not yet ended:-

• The swelling strength and importance of science, education, and development, against conflict over ideological issues and problems of no importance. A magnification of the role of reason, research, and endeavour against superstition and illusions. The crisis toppled many mistaken conceptions about unbelief and faith and the monopoly of purity.
• The emergence of China as a great power not only in the economic field, but in health research and crisis management too. China proved an extraordinary capacity to control the disease by various means — some consistent with the principles of human rights, others limiting individual freedom — but it managed to confine the disease geographically. Chinese teams are now helping the Italian government fight the disease's spread.
• Growing doubt about the idea of the European Union, founded on solidarity among its members. Some states in Europe will look for allies outside the EU framework; likewise the strategic alliance between Europe and the United States will suffer a great fissure.
• The crisis did not distinguish between rich and poor states — it struck poor and rich together. One of the most important lessons is that the world will realise cooperation is far more important than competition; likewise the pharmaceutical companies and scientific-research centres will work to strengthen cooperation among themselves. Investment in the health field and in confronting diseases will be magnified compared with investments in entertainment fields such as football, art, fashion, and the rest — despite these sectors' importance to the human being. But research in the health sector and infectious diseases has not been at the required level.
• With the world's success in confronting the coronavirus, peoples are expected to attend more to government policies and to how resources are distributed and budget lines allocated. The Western world especially will see the emergence of social movements demanding their governments strengthen cooperation and investment in the fields of scientific research for civilian purposes.
• Amassing military power in all its forms does not alone guarantee states' security. Despite the military capacities, nuclear weapons, the conquest of space, and diving to the depths of the seas, the developed world stood paralysed before a virus invisible to the naked eye. A small state such as Switzerland may succeed in reaching a vaccine against the coronavirus despite possessing no enormous military capacities.
• International relations and the axes of conflict and alliance will change: contradictory, contending states were compelled to cooperate, while friendly states did not do what was required of them. The friend in hardship may be the enemy and rival in prosperity.
• With every crisis the human being invents tools, mechanisms, and strategies of confrontation. After corona is brought under control, the world will not be as it was: some sectors will die entirely, and sectors will transform to take a different shape — such as education, where reliance on technology and e-learning will grow, and home delivery will be relied on more in restaurants and shopping.
• The pattern of consumption and the kinds of food will change: reliance will grow on natural foods, with a retreat from the consumption of meat and unhealthy elements.
• The world will take years to rise from this crisis whose end we do not know. The world after corona will not be like the world before corona.