PalThink for Strategic Studies

The coming struggle will be over access to the COVID-19 vaccine

The Economist forecast that the race for the COVID-19 vaccine would be one of the sharpest arenas of inter-state competition in 2021 — with 55 million infections and more than 1.3 million deaths already recorded worldwide.

Author
Omar Shaban Ismail
Date
2020-12-02

The prestigious Economist, in a forward-looking article for 2021, predicted that the struggle to obtain the COVID-19 vaccine would be one of the arenas of sharp competition and conflict between states. With the pandemic's spread in the world and the enormous rise in the numbers of infections and deaths (55 million cases and more than 1.3 million deaths), in addition to the paralysis the pandemic caused the world economy and the inability of economies — even advanced ones — to bear its repercussions, and with confirmed news of health laboratories in the advanced states certifying the validity of the vaccines developed rapidly in the laboratories (9 vaccines currently approved and another 9 under trials), some states began their feverish race to obtain the required vaccines first and in quantities suited to them. And as happened at the virus's first appearance at the start of the year — a feverish and at times unethical struggle to obtain sterilisation materials, protective clothing, and medical equipment such as intensive-care rooms, ventilators, and the rest — it is feared that the race for the vaccines, conducted mostly in secret, will deprive the poor states and peoples who possess neither the financial nor the security and political resources to obtain it. In a BBC report, Duke University estimated that 6.4 billion doses of the prospective vaccines had already been bought, with another 3.2 billion doses either under negotiation or reserved as “optional orders of concluded deals”. That is, the world needs more than 10 billion doses of vaccines, the cost of obtaining them estimated at more than 100 billion dollars. Certainly the manufacturers of the approved vaccines do not have the capacity to produce this enormous quantity of doses quickly; it may take months if not long years. States have decided the vaccine will be given first to health crews, the elderly, and those suffering chronic diseases.

The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi)

The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) — https://www.gavi.org/ — founded in 2000 to help provide the required vaccinations for children in poor states and conflict zones, took the initiative to form the “COVAX” alliance: an international programme run by the global alliance (Gavi) in cooperation with the international organisations and some large companies with social-responsibility funds, to provide vaccine doses to poor states and regions and those in a state of conflict. Gavi says the situation regarding vaccines in the world is 200 research projects currently under way to produce a corona vaccine. According to the international alliance (Gavi), the vaccines approaching approval — though at different trial stages — are: the Inovio vaccine (United States), the Moderna vaccine (United States), the CureVac vaccine (Germany), the joint vaccine of the Pasteur Institute/Merck/Themis (France/United States/Austria), the AstraZeneca vaccine (Oxford University), the University of Hong Kong vaccine, the Novavax vaccine (United States), the Clover Biopharmaceuticals vaccine (China), and the University of Queensland vaccine (Australia).

Dozens of states signed onto the “COVAX” programme run by the international alliance (Gavi) to guarantee obtaining the vaccines they require on the one hand, and to help provide them to the poor regions on the other. 172 states take part in the COVAX programme, of which 80 states have expressed readiness to contribute financially and 92 poor states need assistance from the COVAX programme. The international alliance (Gavi) works with vaccine manufacturers to enable countries across the world to obtain safe and effective vaccines equitably once they are licensed and approved. One of the achievements of the COVAX programme is signing an agreement with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (owner of Microsoft) to provide 100 million doses at an average cost of 3 dollars a dose; the agreement includes obtaining 300 million additional doses on the same terms. The global alliance (Gavi) had launched the advance-purchase reservation programme to guarantee obtaining a suitable share from the vaccine manufacturers, managing to raise 600 million dollars of a target of one billion. Gavi's website lists the names of the states that have expressed readiness to help with funding — among them some Arab states: the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq. The states that will benefit from this programme were likewise classified into three categories:

  1. Low-income countries.
  2. Lower-middle-income countries and territories.
  3. Other countries eligible for support from the International Development Association.

Fortunately the Palestinian territories (the West Bank and Gaza) are listed within the second classification — the middle-income countries and territories. I call on the Palestinian health authorities to contact the international alliance (Gavi) to guarantee obtaining the vaccine. To contact the international alliance:-

Meghana Sharafudeen

+41 79 711 55 54

msharafudeen@gavi.org

https://www.gavi.org/