The future of Jerusalem amid political and regional change: a forward reading

Jerusalem is a central axis of the Arab–Israeli conflict, given its unique religious, historical, and political standing. Across the decades the city has remained a centre of contention between Palestinians and Israelis: Israel seeks to entrench its control through settlement and Judaisation policies, while Palestinians strive to preserve its Arab, Islamic, and Christian identity and make it the capital of their future state.

Under the current political and regional shifts, Jerusalem faces unprecedented challenges that bear on its future and identity. The city's future is shaped by several factors, chief among them the regional geopolitical conflicts, the shifts in the positions of the great powers — especially the variable introduced by the new American administration — the manifestations of the war of extermination in the Gaza Strip, and the internal challenges represented by right-wing Israeli policies toward the Palestinian population. This paper aims to look ahead to Jerusalem's future by analysing the present reality and the probable scenarios, and seeks to offer policy alternatives to support the city's steadfastness, preserve its identity, and strengthen the presence of its cause on the international political stage.

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