Visions and foresight for the future of governance in Palestine

The problem this paper discusses is that the future of the Palestinian political system remains unclear — meaning it is still too early to determine the shape of the system of government. Accordingly, the two researchers used the foresight method to analyse a set of variables and indicators and build expected scenarios for the future of the political system and its effect on the Palestinian system of government. The foresight methodology rests on analysing future trends and changes by studying current patterns and expected challenges, with the aim of anticipating the probable scenarios. To that end, the researchers convened two focus groups, in Gaza City and Ramallah, on Thursday 23 January 2025, to gather the views of elites, representatives, and actors in Palestinian society on where this system is heading. The researchers also conducted a set of unstructured personal interviews with several Palestinian politicians to reach results amenable to analysis.

This paper will review the Palestinian political system across its successive historical stages, then discuss the challenges facing the principal actors within Palestinian society who have historically had a clear hand in shaping and building the political system and the system of government — especially the Palestinian Authority, with the Fatah movement behind it, the Hamas movement, and the rest of the Palestinian national and Islamic forces. The paper will also discuss the future of the Palestinian political system and the effect of each scenario on the future of the system of government.

Download the paper (Arabic): click here