Working paper: Crisis prevention after the war — engineering transitional stability in Palestine between international recognitions and the Gaza reconstruction plans

Introduction:

After a long and devastating war, Palestine finds itself at a critical turning point that demands comprehensive rebuilding and a fortifying of the future. The war left Gaza with immense human and material destruction: lives lost in the thousands and injuries in the tens of thousands, and wide destruction of housing and essential infrastructure. The joint assessments of the United Nations, the World Bank, and the European Union put the damage in Gaza at an estimated $30 billion in physical assets, plus $19 billion in economic losses from the halt of production and services. The destruction reached the most vital sectors: housing was hardest hit (53% of the material value of the damage), followed by trade and industry (20%), then vital infrastructure such as health, water, and transport (more than 15% of total damage). As a result, Gaza saw a near-total halt of economic activity; prices rose at a rate exceeding 300% within a single year, and Gaza — home to 40% of the population of the Palestinian territories — came to contribute only 3% of GDP because of the enormous contraction. The institutions' capacity to deliver basic services also collapsed, owing to continuous power cuts, repeated water outages, and the loss of communications and internet. With the electricity grid down entirely, the sole power-generation plant has been completely out of action since 11 October 2023, and most of the lines drawing electricity from Israel were destroyed (most of the ten high-voltage connection points were damaged), forcing residents to rely on limited diesel generators or small solar systems, which themselves suffered fuel shortages and wide destruction from the military operations. According to UN data, the water and sanitation system went out of service across large areas and waste piled up, raising the risk of epidemics.

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