Egypt is not Gaza, and the Muslim Brotherhood is not Hamas

Translated by/ Jihad Abu Salim (Pal-Think for Strategic Studies)

(*) Haaretz 2/7/2011

Any interpretation of the events in Egypt must be made carefully, since peace in particular is a strategic asset for Egypt and Israel, and any irresponsible comment put forward by an important Israeli figure has as its consequence damage to the peace agreement. We must remember that the majority of the 82 million people living in Egypt live under difficult economic conditions, and that peace with this country rests on four sources of profit: tourism, free passage through the Suez Canal, the oil-production facilities located near the canal, in addition to American economic support and the security functions.

The Egyptian people possess a characteristic different from the Arab peoples of the region. The Egyptians are not like the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Jordan, and are not like the Shiites in Lebanon; they are a people that possesses a high degree of pride and have never been enslaved to religious fanaticism, regardless of the Islamic revolutions that have swept the region.

Even if the Muslim Brotherhood reaches power under the cover of democratic elections (and the Brotherhood is not an organisation that can be linked to Hamas), there is little likelihood of Egypt joining what is called the “axis of evil” centred on Iran; religious zeal does not hatch political developments in Egypt like those that occur in other parts of the Arab world.

The Egyptian security forces are strong and numerous, and the force of the mass demonstrations in fact constitutes a drop in the ocean when compared with these elements (that is, the strength of the security apparatus), and so long as the security forces continue to obey the authority of the ruling regime the chances of revolution are slight.

In any case, the wave of demonstrations has created a situation that has forced the regime to listen to the people and has also forced it to change its economic and social agenda. The situation in which the upper class lives a life of luxury and gross wealth while nearly half the population lives in hunger and want, and in which many citizens live in cemeteries and dilapidated dwellings — this situation and these patterns will change.

The change must be gradual; for this reason I believe that the Egyptian president's decision not to step down was correct. Hosni Mubarak must lead the transition towards the September elections, in order to allow the opposition masses to organise their vote and to prevent the “democratic” rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power.

The chaos in Egypt is bound to cross our border with this country (he means the Israeli–Egyptian border), particularly with regard to the flow of refugees from Africa; and the most worrying matter is Egypt's border with the Gaza Strip. For this reason the things I said in the past about the Israel Defence Forces' limited control over the length of the border are today more pertinent than before.

Some put forward the possibility of “open borders” between Gaza and Egypt as the beginning of a process through which Gaza would become linked to that country; but while this solution appears “good” for Israel, I doubt that it is a realistic possibility, since it conflicts with the interests of both peoples in Gaza and in Egypt.

The state of Israel in general, and the Defence Forces in particular, must remain alert to the conditions in Egypt without taking any steps to intervene. Our efforts to combat infiltration must be escalated, and we must be ready to take control of the Philadelphi axis on Gaza's border with Egypt, but without causing any harm to the Egyptian security forces.

Israel must also allow several battalions of the Egyptian army to enter Sinai (in a way that departs from the peace agreement with Egypt, but by an agreement carrying American guarantees that the Egyptian forces will withdraw as soon as they complete their mission, or when Israel requests withdrawal). This deployment of the army would strengthen Egypt's control over Sinai and would pre-empt any actions taken by Hamas or by the Bedouin who do as they please there (in Sinai).

(*) An article by Yom-Tov Samia: retired major general (Dr Yom-Tov Samia served as head of the Southern Command of the Israel Defence Forces)